July 3, 2011 Post by Parker Binion

As a new feature on the Forum, I have added Volume-Weighted TRIN to the Pages menu on the right-hand side of the Forum.

The TRIN (Short-Term TRading INdex) or Arms Index (discovered by Richard Arms in 1967) is the ratio of advancing to declining issues divided by the ratio of advancing to declining volume.  As a breadth oscillator, it can be used as an overbought-oversold indicator.

The 5-day average TRIN is a popular way to smooth the indicator.   You simply add the final daily TRIN for each of the last 5 days and divide by 5.  Accordingly, each day counts the same in the 5-day simple TRIN average.

Some people prefer to use a 5-day exponential moving average of TRIN, which weighs the TRIN days in order of recency.

However, neither method accounts for volume.  I will update the Volume-Weighted TRIN chart on a weekly basis, and will update the TRIN data daily.

June 13, 2011 Post by Parker Binion

Very few ETFs are showing much strength right now.  Sugar is an exception.  The ETF symbol is SGG.  In the past month, SGG has broken above resistance on price, RSI and MFI.   RSI has popped above 60-62 (the ceiling for down trends), indicating a new up trend is in place.  On June 13, the 20-day MA crossed above the 50-day MA.  Technically, SGG looks like a nice candidate to buy on dips.

June 1, 2011 Post By Terry Laundry

Hi.  This is Terry Laundry.  Welcome to my first post to the T Theory Forum. I will be posting my daily chart twice weekly after the Wednesday and Friday closing data becomes available.

For today’s post we see my Daily Chart brought up to Wednesday’s very violent close. In the upper right-hand portion of the chart the green S&P bars show a bounce off of the mid-channel (S&P 1324). Yesterday, it looked possible to actually continue higher because the volume oscillator had a big spike up on Tuesday. Yet the market collapsed on Wednesday.

My interpretation  is that we are very likely seeing the beginnings of the decline off the  A-D Mega-T#3′s projected April 27 peak and during June we will see the market headed down to the July 1 low at cycle low #9.  I think it could be a rough ride to perhaps S&P 1200 by August/September.

In other matters I would be bullish on gold here because the evidence today is that ugly-looking equity markets drive investments towards gold and I we still have upside time at least into the mid-June time period. For gold movements within the daily bands we should get to the upper shaded  bound in my Public Gold Chart, and if panic sets in, then perhaps all the way to the more distant dotted line outer envelope. Under favorable conditions gold could reach the 1600 level.

Treasury Bonds are doing extremely well on the capital appreciation front and can make substantial progress going into the Fall.